Key takeaways from this article:
– A theory called “Go-Set” is suggested to fully recover world health & economic problems arising out of Covid-19
– GoSet hinges on two pillars: One, A three months global lock-down across nations to fully stop new infections and cure existing cases in this period. Virus will die-out in public places during this time-frame as it can’t survive more than a month without a carrier. Two, All Governments to compensate companies for a period of 3 months so nobody losses job. Saving entire economic structure as it is and resume full steam after 3 months with no virus around. Government can provide this compensation in form of tax relief.
– We freeze the calendar for accounting purposes to avoid a recession and later reinstate to sync it with biological calendar.
– More detail on this theory are inside this blog.
4-April-2020: This is our third article on Covid-19 and perhaps the most important one. As a concerned human being & research analyst, Covid-19 has been bothering us. While Governments are doing their best, we are also applying our own thought process to explore a solution. Thanks to some eureka moments during shower and the research followups, we believe GoSet (Global Reset) can potentially be a solution. This solution will mitigate the health issues as well as drastically reduce the economic impact. Everything in a span of just 3 months. However, it is a totally out of the box solution, named as GoSet. We believe in GoSet and after reading this article, if you also believe in it and want authorities to consider it, please circulate it across the internet using all your social platforms. We need your help to push it to the critical mass. Reading this article will take around 8-10 minutes of your time but will be worth it. Let’s begin.
Trying hard to stop but is it sufficient?
Countries are taking different approaches to contain this virus by imposing lock-downs ranging from 14 days to 1 month. Some are imposing a partial lock-down while a few are not imposing a lock-down, rather relying on social distancing. Results have been varying but all of them are helping to temporarily contain the spread.
The problem with such approach is that what happens after 14+ days of lock-down. Healthcare experts warn that this virus may live longer asymptotically. Once lock-down finishes, it may again start to spread and Governments may be forced to reintroduce a lock-down. This is more of pause & play kind of approach.
If a nation can completely wipeout the virus from its geography (still a daunting task), there is always a risk of imported virus once flights / cargo ships start operating. We can’t ban export or import for an indefinite period. Countries like India needs oil and many other raw materials from outside.
Economic Impacts: Primary & Secondary
In terms of economic impact, obviously lock-downs will bring economy to a complete standstill. The primary impact will be felt on all businesses as they can neither manufacture nor sell existing inventory. However, they still need to pay salaries, rents, depreciate assets and probably continue maintenance. With Government’s advisory to retain employees, it is going to be very hard for small businesses since they don’t have deep pockets. A week or month can be sustained but here we are talking about a couple of months of total plus partial shutdown and economic slowdown spilling over an year or more. This is still primary impact, the secondary impact will be much worse. With layoffs and labor migration, it will be hard for factories to re-start production in the same manner. Companies relying on crude labors like real-estate, textile will have a very hard time in reverse migrating so many people.
Another secondary impact will be the creation of a vicious cycle. The major driver of economy is usually the middle class and they will be hit hard both on pocket (due to loss of employment) & spending appetite (being averse to spending). With less demand, the industrial production will also stay lower resulting in lesser employment & more overheads in running operations at lower utilization levels, thus lower job creation. For countries where capacity utilization was already low, like India, this problem will be more compounded.
Reserve Banks around the world are responding to this threat by slashing interest rates and even making it zero (USA). The idea is that it will reduce loan burden on cash starved companies while galvanizing consumers/sellers to take more or refinance loans. Thus breaking the vicious cycle and creating a virtuous cycle artificially. History shows it may have worked in the past (post 2008 financial crisis).
In summary, this is what is being executed around the world in response to Covid-19. Will it be enough? Only time will tell. However, it is going to take trillions of dollars & multiple lock-downs over a substantially long period (anywhere between 6 months to 12 months) to overcome this pandemic. Even after this, we will never be sure if virus is completely gone from all the corners of the world.
Applying “Systems Thinking”
Just like any other person, current situation has been frustrating for us as well. Is there any solution we can think of to overcome this situation? After applying systems thinking and some eureka moments, we thought of a novel approach to tackle this novel virus. Conventional methods were not yielding any promising results, except finding a cure in the form of a medicine. We need to think innovative & out of the box. So, we went systematically about this problem and started with “Systems Thinking”. To apply systems thinking, first we jot down all the facts to get a hold of this situation and save a mapping inside our brain. This is followed by brainstorming over a period of time. By the way, in this analysis, we focused on healthcare & economic factors which are also the most impacted ones.
First, the information which we are gathering from different sources about Covid-19. Some of them are assumptions from different scientists as this is a new virus & things are evolving. They are listed as below:
- Virus spreads from Wuhan (China) to everywhere in literally 3 months.
- The death rate is low ranging from 1%-5%. There is no preventive vaccine or a proven medicine as of now.
- It may take up to 14 days or more for symptoms to appear.
- A person can asymptotically pass on this virus to someone else for as long as 21 days or more. Experts are not sure on this. Some cases in China support this fact.
- Lock-downs across nations for different periods of time.
- Job losses are unavoidable, sooner or later.
- Longevity of this problem is not confirmed. It may take 2 months or 2 years, we are not sure.
- Dent to world economy and pushing it to recession.
- Complete ban on international travel over longer period (say 2 years) is not practical.
- Complete eradication of this virus within a nation itself is daunting.
- Virus may mutate as it passes from one person to another and become milder in future. A phenomenon observed in earlier viruses.
- Typically during winters, such virus outbreak reoccurs. It may make a comeback in winters pushing us again into possible lock-downs.
- Pause play economy will destroy buyer’s confidence & seller’s ability to sustain.
- Other complications apart from Covid-19 are being neglected as healthcare machinery is fully occupied in it. This will result in indirect deaths which nobody is counting.
GoSet: A Novel solution to a Novel Virus
Absorbing all the inputs, there seems to be no easy or fast solution within traditional ways of thinking. So, we went creative and kept thinking over it & something unique hit our thought process.
Simply put the idea is “Freeze the calendar” by doing a global reset of the world, GoSet (Global Reset) in response to Covid.
The concept of time is defined by the humans and we can very well pause & restore it. In fact, we do tweak clock concepts every year while observing “daylight saving” time in the western world. This time we have to do it on a large scale. All we need is an open mindset to digest this out of box solution called “GoSet”. Below is the GoSet hypothesis written down in chronological order.
- Start 3 months long global lock-down. All countries must agree & participate in this simultaneous lock-down.
- Freeze calendar at the start of this lock-down. For example, if it starts on 01-May-2020, then time stops there itself for a period of 3 months. 01-May-2020 will represent whole 3 months. 02-May-2020 will be celebrated on 02-Aug-2020 (i.e. end of lock-down).
- During this 3 months period, virus will timeout (die) everywhere (park, benches, door knobs, etc). All infected patients can be fully cured and new cases should drastically reduce towards zero by the end of first month, making patient care manageable. Unfortunately, there will be some loss of lives due to comorbidity (presence of other medical conditions) BUT this will be the end of it.
- After 3 months, open everything just as normal. Shops, banks, offices, factories everything. Roll back all fiscal stimulus and re-instate older policies & conditions (interest rates etc). Economy should return back to normal within days as nothing has changed.
- Re-start calendar again at the end of this lock-down (i.e. 01-Aug-2020) and next day will be counted as 02-May-2020. In-between 3 months just disappeared.
- Governments must mandate all companies to retain their employees & contract staff during this period. To compensate, Government will take care of company’s bare minimum expenditure during 3 months lock-down. This will be the financial cost for the Government to execute this idea.
- Governments must empower employees to report online if any employer is not following this order and firing employees. Strict punishment for companies defying this mandate despite reimbursement. We need to save the economic structure so it can start with full force later.
- Companies are responsible to report minimum expenditure needed to sustain themselves during 3 months, back to the Government for claiming reimbursement. The minimum expenditure will be for essential items only like salaries, rent, machinery maintenance, perishable inventory management or write off in lieu of that, etc. Government to verify their minimum expenditure claims as it should reflect in their last published financial results. Companies do declare their major expenditure heads during reporting.
- For financial reporting, all expenses within these 3 months to be reported on a single day 01-May-2020. Companies to prepare financial results for next quarter as usual. Since Government is reimbursing expenses, it will be zero gains/losses for that one day period (aka 3 months). In worst case, it will be probably just one day’s loss of net income (expenditure – Government reimbursement) and will not significantly impact their results. No recession. No job loss. Seller & Buyer confidence will remain intact. Economy will be largely protected.
- To fund this reimbursement, Government can issue tax rebates to the companies instead of making a full payment. This tax rebate can be spread upto 5 years to stagger the impact on tax revenues.
- Government can also choose to give 50% reimbursement in the form of tax rebates, rest in the form of immediate payment for mid & smaller companies as they will need cash to re-start.
- To make this payment, Governments can simply print more money. If globally reserve banks can agree to this approach, there will be very limited currency devaluation arising from printing more money. We don’t have any currency competition from Moon, its all within this globe. The reason for limited impacts is because every country will be printing money in proportion to their GDP. A company’s expenditures are always a fraction of the value of goods or services produced by that company. Hence at aggregate level, such expenditure reimbursement will always be in proportion to respective country’s GDP. In summary, every country will help themselves as per their market size and no country will go bankrupt. IMF can act as a moderator to create an escrow account to enable it.
- To reinstate biological date, on 30-Sep-2020 as per new calendar, we can celebrate new year (it will be winters) and continue next day as 01-Jan-2021. Simply leapfrog across the calendar. This will be the end of GoSet exercise.
While 3 months lock-down is important to eradicate virus, the calendar hopping is important to prevent an economic collapse. We are proposing to write off one quarter & re-start again where we left last time. Simply tear-down bad page of the memory book. No quarter on quarter comparisons for recession pundits or company management to take any harsh action on people that matter the most in this economy, the salaried middle-class. During this period, Governments should reimburse employers to retain their employees. Another alternate can be taken by the Government which will be to directly reimburse tax paying residents as per data from last year’s income tax filings. But there is a flaw. It will leave unorganized non-filing poor citizens left out. So instead of micro-managing at public level, Government can better manage at company level & let other aspects below company level remain unchanged. This will save the entire economic tree and restoring will be easier. Government & tax officials already have these data, they simply need to crunch it & reimburse. Companies can also come forward to absorb some of this expenses themselves & put lesser strain on Government funds. After all, it is a temporary measure to permanently shut this virus.
At face value, this seems too costly for Government’s budget but remember Government can print more money by merely using some ink & paper. Situations like these are unique and we need to print more money to come out it. Infact, Governments across the world have already started to do so. The fiscal stimulus rolled out by various Governments as announced recently, we already observe that many of them are running into 20%-40% of their country GDP numbers and this is just the beginning. There will be more fiscal stimulus needed in future and end cost will be much higher. It may run into 1x-3x of GDP in total. In GoSet, we should be good with about 25% (3 months) of the GDP only. Historically we have seen that these fiscal stimulus lasts for many years and most likely it will be the case for Covid-19 under traditional approach.
Cost of Covid-19 under pause & play method* = Healthcare Cost (3-18 months) + Fiscal Stimulus Package (20-40% of GDP to begin with and more) + Lost opportunity due to recession (bare minimum of a year’s global GDP growth or more)
Cost of Covid-19 under GoSet = Healthcare Cost (3-6 Months) + Fiscal Bailout Package (25% of GDP)
*Pause & Play Method refers to the act where authorities will be enforcing multiple lock-downs as and when Covid-19 cases arise during the course of next 12-18 months.
*Nature of the Lock-down: It can’t be a complete shutdown as essential services will still need to operate else there will be chaos and more causalities. However, only the bare essential activities should be allowed.
*Global Lock-down: If we are not able to convince all countries across the world. It can still work with majority of the nations agreeing to it. For few countries who do not collaborate on this approach should be isolated to ensure GoSet efforts don’t go to a waste. Such countries can be imposed with trade & travel restrictions for one year to avoid the spread in any form.
The Main Challenge
Coming to the main challenge which is getting global consensus for GoSet. We believe with enough circulation, if this idea becomes mainstream, it will surely reach to the relevant authorities. May be some motivated & concerned authority, media or political power can take a lead on this. Surely, countries are exchanging ideas at the top level to tackle this virus. Their experts can table it for a discussion.
In current situation when all nations are struggling with this virus, getting a global consensus may be not be that difficult as it seems. Remember, virus will not discriminate anyone. It will treat different counties, religion, regions, caste etc with same disdain. It is truly a global challenge & world needs to step-up together to ward it off. Such practice, if successful, can be replicated in future whenever such large-scale biological crisis erupts.
As a matter of fact, thousands of animal borne virus are still not fully understood by scientific community as their focus is on human borne virus. Also virus have the ability to transform themselves by mutation. Adding both facts, it is very likely that such global outbreaks will reoccur in the future, some of them may be more deadly. Vaccine/medicine will always be a step behind because there is no commercial reason to manufacture something for which demand does not exist. Hence, we need to look at solutions which are beyond medical. May be in the form of GoSet or something else which can be under human control and globally executed when needed.
Why GoSet is good
The best part under GoSet is smaller time period of the lock-down. It will save immense pain for people living on street or those who are earning barely hand to mouth. The growth engine of the economy, salaried middle class, will keep their jobs and resume office after 3 months. This will bring capacity utilization right up to the mark within days. Buyer’s confidence will remain in place as their employment is secured. With virus globally eradicated, people will be confident to carry-on their day to day activities as usual. Such a fast reboot is not possible in a pause & play method. The main drawback of play & pause method is that different countries will do it at different times. Whenever situation becomes worse, concerned authorities will enforce a lock-down but virus still keeps travelling and take advantage of our out of sync lock-downs. We have already seen this happening. Virus hotspot shifted from Wuhan to other parts of China to Europe and now America. It is surely not the best method to stop this virus as it will always keep lurking in some part of the world. And once it manifests again in some country, it will get global media attention. This pattern spooks everyone and destroys people’s confidence for many more quarters or even years. Physical & mental health impact will be multi-folds while global economic impact will be devastating.
Should we give GoSet a chance to be considered?
Obviously, this idea is totally out of the box & needs further refinements but at high level this seems doable. At this hour, there seems to be no perfect solutions without proven medicines. New infections are multiplying globally and it is imperative to tackle this monster now. Also, during GoSet period, experts will have enough time to fine tune it to meet every country’s unique requirements.
Imagine economy is a mega sized turbine, if it stops, huge sums of money over sustainable period will be needed to rev it up to the threshold RPM. It is always a good idea not to push this turbine into a standstill. If we can overcome the problem by merely slowing it down and then rev it up just in time, it is worth the attempt.
Problem is global and solution is bound to be global. Under current approach world will eventually end up suffering more over a long period of time & by any yardstick spending a hell lot more money to brings things back to normal. GoSet can control this virus but first this idea itself needs to go viral online. If we can take a timely action by sharing it with everyone and authorities take a notice to come with this or something similar or even better, we can drastically reduce the time, spend & suffering. Decision is global!!
We humbly acknowledge that we are not an international expert in healthcare but due to sheer simplicity of this hypothesis, no one needs to be an expert to believe that it can potentially work. We just need to embrace the fact that such a unique problem needs an innovative approach. We welcome authorities and people to seriously consider this approach without boxing themselves within traditional ways of thinking. If it makes some sense then ideas like GoSet should be given a chance to be explored further. We are going to do our bit by sharing this idea (GoSet) with various authorities across the world. Let’s see if it reverberates.
An appeal to all readers – We share so many meme, forwards etc., why not share something which impacts all of us directly. If you think authorities should give GoSet or similar innovative ideas a thought, please generously share this blog across your social media platforms (hastag #GoSet) and then let internet decide its fate. Tackling Covid-19 is our joint responsibility. Sharing buttons are there at the bottom of this page. No attribution is required. Link of this article for easy copy-paste anywhere: https://wp.me/p8BpQn-1me